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MLB ALCS Game 5 · October 18, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
Rays vs. Guardians Recap: Rays 3, Guardians 1
Final score
| Team | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 5 | 0 |
W: Drew Rasmussen · L: Parker Messick · S: Bryan Baker
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, Progressive Field. Series before this game: Series tied 2-2.
Odyn's pick
Settled- Cleveland Guardians ML (+116) · lost -1.00u
Starting pitchers
Rays
Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter): 16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 174 K and 32 BB in 172.0 IP
Guardians
Parker Messick (LHP, starter): 12-9, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 193 K and 49 BB in 186.1 IP
Regular season
| Team | Record | Run differential |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 98-64 | +86 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 85-77 | +11 |
Series so far
| Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|
| ALCS Game 1 | Cleveland Guardians 7 | Tampa Bay Rays 3 |
| ALCS Game 2 | Cleveland Guardians 1 | Tampa Bay Rays 3 |
| ALCS Game 3 | Tampa Bay Rays 2 | Cleveland Guardians 3 |
| ALCS Game 4 | Tampa Bay Rays 7 | Cleveland Guardians 3 |
More from this series: ALCS Game 4 (October 17, 2026) · ALCS Game 6 (October 19, 2026).
Pregame analysis
Written before the game.
Rays vs Guardians, ALCS Game 5, is on today at Progressive Field with the series tied 2-2. Tampa Bay evened it on Saturday with a 7-3 win in Game 4, its most runs of the series. The two teams have traded wins all series: Cleveland won Game 1 7-3 in Tampa Bay, the Rays took Game 2 3-1, and the Guardians edged Game 3 3-2 at home. Today's winner goes up 3-2 and is one win from the World Series, with Game 6 set for Monday at Tropicana Field.
This is the best pitching matchup of the series on paper. Drew Rasmussen starts for Tampa Bay after a 16-5 season with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 30 starts and 172 innings. He struck out 174 and walked only 32, so very few runners reached base against him.
Cleveland counters with left-hander Parker Messick: 12-9, 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 32 starts and 186.1 innings. He had the bigger strikeout total (193) but more walks (49). Both starters allowed fewer than one earned run every three innings this year. Games 2 and 3 produced only four and five total runs; Games 1 and 4 both ended 7-3.
In the regular season Tampa Bay was clearly the stronger team, 98-64 with a +86 run differential, against Cleveland's 85-77 and +11. The Guardians have the home field today, where they won Game 3 and lost Game 4. Odyn's AI quant model runs this game about an hour before first pitch, once both lineups are confirmed.
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Updated Oct 21, 05:38 PM ET.
By the Odyn Team · 21+ · Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER · Responsible gambling