Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Enter the odds, your win probability and your stake to see the expected value of a bet, its break-even win rate and its fair odds. Free, no sign-up.

How to calculate expected value

Expected value (EV) is what a bet returns on average if you could place it many times:

EV = (win % × profit if it wins) − (loss % × stake)

A bet has positive EV when your win probability is higher than the break-even probability of the odds (1 ÷ decimal odds).

Example: $10 at +150 with a 45% chance

+150 pays $15 of profit on $10. EV = 0.45 × $15 − 0.55 × $10 = $6.75 − $5.50 = +$1.25, or +12.5% of the stake. The break-even win rate at +150 is 40%, so 45% is a real edge.

Where the win probability comes from

The whole calculation depends on the win probability you enter. A common starting point is the fair probability of a sharp market, which you can get from the no-vig calculator. Once you know a bet has an edge, the Kelly calculator tells you how much to stake.

Odyn's AI quant models only post a bet when the win probability is high and the price is right.

FAQ

What is EV in sports betting?

Expected value is the average profit or loss of a bet if you could place it many times: win % times the profit, minus loss % times the stake.

What is a +EV bet?

A bet whose win probability is higher than the break-even probability of its odds. Over many such bets you expect to make money, even though any single bet can lose.

How do I find my win probability?

From your own model, or from the fair odds of a sharp market once the vig is removed. The no-vig calculator does that step.

Can a +EV bet lose?

Yes. EV is an average over many bets: individual bets still win or lose, which is why results only show over hundreds of bets.

More free betting calculators

Parlay calculator

Payout, odds and the chance a parlay hits, up to 15 legs.

No-vig calculator

Remove the sportsbook's margin to get fair odds and true probabilities.

Kelly criterion calculator

How much of your bankroll to bet when you have an edge.

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